Can US F-16s break the impasse blocking Finland and Sweden NATO membership?

AT LEAST SIX MONTHS AWAY: With Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu scheduled to visit Washington tomorrow, the Biden administration is gearing up efforts to incentivize the recalcitrant NATO ally to drop its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Hungary has indicated its Parliament will approve the accession of the two Nordic countries next month, leaving Turkey as the last holdout, as approval requires all 30 NATO members to agree. Turkey complains that the newest NATO aspirants have yet to meet Ankara’s demands to crack down on supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and a group it has labeled a terrorist organization and blames for a 2016 coup attempt.

On Saturday, Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman and foreign policy adviser for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said Turkey will likely wait until Finland and Sweden enact changes to anti-terror laws required under a trilateral memorandum signed last year, which would delay approval until June, at the earliest. “It really depends on how fast they move and how wide and deep they move on these issues,” said Kalin, according to the Associated Press. “What they’re telling us is the new laws will be fully effective and completed by June.”

FINLAND AND SWEDEN’S NATO AMBITIONS AT MERCY OF TURKEY AND HUNGARY

ENTER THE F-16s: The Biden administration has one big carrot it can dangle in front of Erdogan. Turkey is anxious to buy 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters along with 80 kits to modernize its F-16 fleet.

Last week, the Biden administration informally notified Congress it wants to proceed with the $20 billion deal, triggering a review process after holding up the sale for more than a year. The sale of F-16s to Turkey would be accompanied by a separate deal to send F-35s to Greece in an apparent effort to mollify the Athens government over the arms transfer with its NATO rival.

“As a matter of policy, the department is not going to comment on proposed defense sales or transfers until they’ve been formally notified to Congress,” said deputy spokesman Vedant Patel at the State Department on Friday. “But what I would say is that Turkey and Greece both are vital, vital NATO allies and we have a history of, of course, supporting their security apparatuses.”

CONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION: Congress can block the sale and is likely to do so, especially if Turkey does not release its hold on Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership bids. But President Joe Biden could sidestep Congress with a veto, which would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override.

Already, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) is on record opposing the sale, citing Erdogan’s record on human rights. “Until Erdogan ceases his threats, improves his human rights record at home — including by releasing journalists and political opposition — and begins to act like a trusted ally should, I will not approve this sale,” he said in a statement.

Congressional restrictions on the sale of F-16s were removed from the latest version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which frees Biden to work a deal, if there is one to be had.

BIDEN PLANS TO SELL F-16 FIGHTER JETS TO TURKEY DRAWS DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden meets today with Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands at 11:15 a.m. at the White House. “As strong NATO allies and global partners, the two leaders will reaffirm our shared efforts to strengthen transatlantic security and economic prosperity,” the White House said in a statement.

ALSO TODAY: At 2 p.m., Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly at the State Department, followed by a joint press conference at 3:20 p.m. Livestreamed on www.state.gov and www.YouTube.com/statedept.

SHERMAN, KAHL, FINER, VISIT UKRAINE: Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, and Jon Finer, principal deputy national security adviser, were in Kyiv yesterday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The delegation was briefed on “the current situation on the frontline and the needs of the defense forces,” along with “the work of air defense to repel missile attacks” and efforts to conduct the “restoration of damaged power facilities.”

The delegation reaffirmed America’s “strong and steadfast commitment to Ukraine and its defense against Russia’s unprovoked aggression,” according to readouts from the State Department and the Pentagon.

MILLEY REVIEWS TRAINING: Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley made a stop at the U.S. training facility in Grafenwoehr, Germany, yesterday, ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of military chiefs at NATO Headquarters.

Milley was reviewing the combined arms training of Ukrainian troops at the sprawling base, where over the years tens of thousands of U.S. troops have trained in live-fire and realistic combat conditions.

“This is not a run-of-the-mill rotation,” Milley said as he met with commanders, according to an Associated Press reporter traveling with him. “This is one of those moments in time where if you want to make a difference. This is it.”

EXPANDED US TRAINING FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES IN GERMANY UNDERWAY

CHANGE AT THE TOP: Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin heads to Germany tomorrow, and the first item on his public calendar is a meeting and a scheduled joint press conference in Berlin on Thursday with his German counterpart.

Christine Lambrecht, a key member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, is now the former defense minister having resigned suddenly yesterday after suffering through a year of blistering criticism over her handling of the war in Ukraine and Germany’s foot-dragging in providing offensive weaponry.

Lambrecht’s resignation comes as Germany is under pressure to grant permission to Poland and other European nations to send some of their German-made Leopard 2 heavy tanks to Ukraine — and perhaps to send some of their own as well.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced Saturday the United Kingdom will be sending a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine along with “around” 30 AS-90 large, self-propelled guns. “The U.K. will begin training the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use the tanks and guns in the coming days, as part of wider U.K. efforts which have seen thousands of Ukrainian troops trained in the U.K. over the last six months.,” Sunak said in a statement.

“Tanks, APCs and artillery are exactly what Ukraine needs to restore its territorial integrity. Thank you @RishiSunak, thank you, @BWallaceMP, thank you British people for this powerful contribution to our common victory over tyranny,” tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Austin and Milley will host the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, on Friday.

GERMAN DEFENSE MINISTER RESIGNS AMID UKRAINE CRITICISM

ESPER: UKRAINE ‘TRAPPED’ IN RUSSIAN WAY OF WAR: Ukraine’s current dilemma is that while it continues to outwit and outmaneuver Russia on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of pounding civilian targets, leveling towns, and sacrificing wave after wave of conscript troops to deadly infantry assaults is exacting a heavy toll, according to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

“I think the problem right now is Ukraine is kind of trapped in the Russian method of warfare, this stalemate where you’re grinding, using infantry and artillery, and it’s just a grinding piece of warfare,” Esper said in an appearance on CNN Monday morning.

To change the battlefield dynamic, the Ukrainians need to “fight their fight,” Esper said. “The key to that is for the United States and its allies to provide Ukrainians with armor and with mechanized fighting vehicles. … The tanks are next.”

“The bigger picture is this: We need to get out of the stalemate, this war of attrition, and allow Ukraine to get on the counteroffensive,” he said.

OPINION: FORGET SOLEDAR: RUSSIA CANNOT SUSTAIN THE OFFENSIVE INITIATIVE

ISW: PUTIN REGROUPING, PREPARING TO TRY AGAIN: In a campaign analysis released over the weekend, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War warned that Putin has not given up on his “maximalist objectives” despite its embarrassing battlefield defeats and the failure to achieve most of its major operational objectives over the past 11 months.

“The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes,” the ISW said. “While Putin has not changed his objectives for the war, there is emerging evidence that he is changing fundamental aspects of Russia’s approach to the war by undertaking several new lines of effort.”

The ISW analysis noted the Russian Defense Ministry is seeking to raise the age of conscription, expand the size of the military from 1.3 million to 2 million, and form new military divisions.

Meanwhile, Russian appears to be holding back some of its new recruits to increase training ahead of a spring/summer attempt to regain the initiative.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Expanded US training for Ukrainian forces in Germany underway

Washington Examiner: Zelensky pushes for Western aid to fight Russian ‘army of about 2 million people’

Washington Examiner: German defense minister resigns amid Ukraine criticism

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Forget Soledar: Russia cannot sustain the offensive initiative

Washington Examiner: Biden plan to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey draws Democratic opposition

Washington Examiner: Republican-led House committee begins Afghanistan withdrawal investigation

Washington Examiner: White House reveals more documents were discovered at Biden’s Delaware home

Washington Examiner: Classified documents controversy raises questions about Biden’s think tank

Washington Examiner: Schiff not excluding the ‘possibility’ Biden classified documents jeopardized national security

Washington Examiner: White House counsel says visitor logs for Biden Delaware home do not exist

Washington Examiner: Inside Biden’s effort to shut down Guantanamo Bay

Washington Examiner: GOP action on mail ballot timelines angers military families

Washington Examiner: Threats from Iran are expanding beyond Middle East, defense official says

Washington Examiner: McCarthy: Removing Schiff and Swalwell from committee is ‘what we’re supposed to do’

Washington Examiner: Opinion: ‘Where’s the other four?’ or why we need a defense industry revolution

Politico: Pentagon Mulls Back Pay For Troops Kicked Out Over Covid Vaccine Mandate

CQ Roll Call: Congress Barely Dents Scourge Of Hunger In Military

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Biggest Fear: The Ukraine War Could Start a Civil War in Russia

Newsweek: Russia-Belarus to Run Joint Air Force Drills, Kyiv Fears Renewed War Push

Washington Post: Ukraine liberated Kherson city. Now, Russia is destroying it.

Washington Post: What are Bradleys and other Western combat vehicles bound for Ukraine?

Washington Post: Bloody fighting and high casualties as Russia claims to seize Soledar

Newsweek: Russia-Belarus to Run Joint Air Force Drills, Kyiv Fears Renewed War Push

Defense News: Will the Ukraine War Slow Russia’s Arctic Push?

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall Says China’s Long Reach is Pushing Air Force Toward New Stealth Tankers

Politico: Blinken To Test Limits Of China’s Diplomatic Engagement On Feb. 5-6 Beijing Trip

USNI News: CNO Gilday: Expanding Military Cooperation Between South Korea, Japan ‘A Necessity’

19fortyfive.com: Will South Korea Build Nuclear Weapons?

CNN: Expert’s Warning To U.S. Navy On China: Bigger Fleet Almost Always Wins

Task & Purpose: The Marines Have A New Ship-Killing Weapons System To Counter China

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Report: Air Force Makes Progress on ABMS with Plans for Two Lines of Effort

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman: China’s ASAT Test Was ‘Pivot Point’ in Space Operations

Washington Post: Military pilots also affected by FAA meltdown

Task and Purpose: How airmen used a single Google Doc to save thousands of lives during the Afghan airlift

USNI News: Iranian Navy Sending Ships To Panama Canal, Says Commander

Business Insider: As Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier Falls Apart, Some Russians Want To Undo A Shady Ship Deal With China 25 Years Ago

Space News: SpaceX launches U.S. Space Force’s first mission of 2023 on Falcon Heavy

Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 17

9 a.m. 957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “What Makes Ukraine Resilient in the Asymmetric War? A Study of Local Governments’ Emergency Responses,” with Oksana Huss, professor at the University of Bologna https://calendar.gwu.edu/what-makes-ukraine-resilient-asymmetric-war

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Key foreign policy priorities for the United Kingdom,” with U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-uk-foreign-secretary-james-cleverly

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: beginning at 10 a.m., “Understanding Xi’s China,” with David Rennie, Beijing bureau chief and Chaguan columnist at the Economist, and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow and former analyst at the State Department https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/17/carnegie-connects

12:30 p.m. 1763 N St. NW — Middle East Institute book discussion: Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria, with author Gonul Tol, director of MEI’s Turkey Program https://mei.edu/events/book-talk-erdogans-war

1:30 p.m. Pentagon — Regular Tuesday press briefing with Air Force Brig Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

4 p.m. 3800 Reservoir Rd. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the future of the transatlantic alliance and how to maintain unity in the face of mounting global challenges,” with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-mark-rutte/

4 p.m. — Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion: “Combat Proven Integrated Air and Missile Defense: CENTCOM,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Gregory Guillot, deputy commander of U.S. Central Command; Army Maj. Gen. Sean Gainey, director of the Joint C-UAS Office; Rear Adm. Curt Renshaw, director of J-3 at U.S. Central Command; and retired Lt. Gen. Neil Thurgood, former director of Army hypersonics, directed energy, space, and rapid acquisition at Army Space and Missile Defense Command https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/virtual-crt

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Germany ahead of Friday’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group

6:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. Register here: https://info.ausa.org

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Enhancing Cybersecurity, Information Security, and Industrial Security as the Foundation for Japan’s Defense Transformation,” with Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at NTT; Lindy Kyzer, director of content at ClearanceJobs; Arthur Herman, senior fellow at Hudson; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/enhancing-cybersecurity

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW— Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies book discussion: Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers and Moscow’s Struggle for Ukraine, with author Anna Arutunyan, global fellow at the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-talk-hybrid-warriors

1 p.m. — Navy Memorial virtual discussion with Navy Chief of Chaplains Rear Adm. Gregory Todd https://www.navymemorial.org/new-events

3 p.m. — Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law virtual event: “Secret War: Unauthorized Combat and Legal Loopholes,” with Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel, Brennan Center Liberty and National Security Program; Oona Hathaway, professor of law, Yale Law School; Wesley Morgan, journalist and author, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley; and moderator Elias Yousif, research analyst, conventional defense, Stimson Center https://www.eventbrite.com/e/secret-war-unauthorized-combat-and-legal-loopholes

5 p.m. 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics seminar: “Foreign Leaders Analysis: A Profile of Xi Jinping,” with Enrico Suardi, chief of psychiatry at St. Elizabeths Hospital https://www.iwp.edu/events/foreign-leaders-analysis-a-profile-of-xi-jinping/

THURSDAY | JANUARY 19

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin joint press conference with German defense minister in Berlin.

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report: “North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Forces Korea commander, chairman of the Korea Defense Veterans Association, and member of the CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula https://www.csis.org/events/csis-commission-report-north-korea

10:30 a.m. 2121 K St. NW — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: “The Recalibration of Saudi Foreign Policy,” with Neda Bolourchi, associate director of Rutgers University’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, and Emile Hokayem, IISS director of regional security and senior fellow for Middle East security https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/01/the-recalibration-of-saudi-foreign-policy

11:30 a.m — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on a new report: “Chinese Lessons From the Pacific War: Implications for PLA Warfighting.” https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar

12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Strategic threats in Latin America and the Caribbean,” with Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-general-laura-j-richardson

1 p.m. — Washington Post Live discussion with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) about how she wants her party to govern, with the Washington Post’s Leigh Ann Caldwell https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

FRIDAY | JANUARY 20

4 a.m. Ramstein Air Base, Germany — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin makes opening remarks at the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

10:30 a.m. Ramstein Air Base — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley joint press briefing after Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the University of California at San Diego’s 21st Century China Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-overreach

MONDAY | JANUARY 23

1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn