Fantasy baseball draft advice: Last-minute tips
It’s finally here, the big last weekend of Fantasy Baseball drafting, with the regular season only a few days away. You need a set of guidelines before you build that masterpiece roster, and we’re here for you. Here are your 2022 swing thoughts as you get ready to let it rip.
Be proactive with starting pitching
Fantasy football players know how important (and maddening) running backs are — they’re often injured and sometimes hard to evaluate, but if you land on the right ones, you usually rule your league.
In fantasy baseball, starting pitchers are the running backs. Often, they’ll break your heart. But if you dominate the pitching, you probably dominate your league.
This is a rough rule of thumb, but I like to select a starting pitcher roughly once every three rounds for the first 10-12 rounds of my mixed-league drafts. I’m not going to start my draft with back to back pitchers, but I’m also not going to ignore the position for several rounds before dipping in, which was one of the prevailing strategies of a previous era. I want at least two pitchers on my team who feel like plausible Cy Young contenders.
[Batter up: Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]
Be wary of players already hurt — especially pitchers
It gives me no joy to share this advice, but if a pitcher already has a multiple-week timetable tied to him, I’m probably not drafting him. Injuries are going to find you in any fantasy baseball season, I’m not going to seek them out myself. Jack Flaherty plummeted down my draft board in recent weeks, and I’m unlikely to select Chris Sale or Luis Castillo. It’s no fun panning stars like this, but if they’re not healthy, they’re an open invitation to six months of stress.
The toughest call among starting pitchers is probably Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled for an MRI on his shoulder. The fantasy rules might be different for deGrom, given that when he’s healthy, he’s clearly the starting pitcher with the highest upside. And his case is also different than the pitchers I listed above, who are already confirmed to miss time. But I won’t blame you if you deem deGrom too risky to touch on draft day. Heck, in an important draft of my own two days ago, I had a choice between Gerrit Cole and deGrom, and I opted for the presumed safety of Cole. (As much as any pitcher can be deemed safe. Again, these guys are like running backs. It’s a physically demanding position. Attrition is a cruel fact of life with these guys.)
Batting slot is important
One of my goals is to lead my league in runs scored, or be pretty darn close to the top. With this in mind, I’ll try to get as many batters as I can who slot in the Top 3-4 of their respective teams. Fantasy baseball is a volume game as well as an efficiency game, and when you’re batting more often, you get more chances to accumulate the counting stats we need.
Also be mindful of players who could plausibly be demoted in their lineups. Tommy Edman was a valuable fantasy player last year, in part because he played a full year parked at the top of the St. Louis lineup. But that was for a different manager, and Edman had an ordinary .308 OBP. The Cardinals will likely find a different leadoff man this year, which means Edman probably tumbles to the bottom third of the order.
If you’re unsure of where a player likely bats — or if he’s tied to a pesky platoon — the Roster Resource page at Fangraphs is an excellent check-in area. (Yes, Edman is still slotted first. And yes, I think that’s likely to change.)
[Rankings: Overall | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP]
Go where the runs are
There are a handful of offenses that could run away from the rest of the pack, and almost any offensive player selected on these teams — health permitting, of course — makes reasonable sense. I have cold feet on Cody Bellinger, going through the hitting yips in Los Angeles, but any other Dodgers batter is welcome on my fantasy roster. I’ll also be looking to proactively stack batters from the Blue Jays, White Sox, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, and Astros.
The Rockies are fun when they’re home — just remember they also have to play road games, where they often struggle to readjust to spin rates and breaking pitches. I eyeballed their schedule quickly and saw eight weeks where they’re basically parked at home. Let’s take advantage of those weeks, both with Colorado batters and with the teams visiting the thin air.
Take a worker-bee approach to stolen bases
Did you have roommates in college? A communal living experience can be joyous or hellish, depending on how team-oriented the group is. Put the right-minded people together and things can run smoothly, as everyone chips in with chores and maintenance. But a rooming situation can devolve quickly if the workload isn’t equitably shared.
When it comes to compiling steals, I prefer to equitably share the responsibility. I want as many players as I can get who will at least swipe 7-15 bases. If a few of those players can go higher than that — while still being multi-category sources — that’s welcome, too. If I’ve assembled my roster correctly, this prevents me from needing to consider a one-trick steals pony later in the draft, someone who might run aggressively but cost me significantly in the power categories.
I also like to look for players who could possibly spike their steal counts. Consider Amed Rosario, who was 13-for-13 on steals last year. Perhaps he’ll be encouraged to run more often this season, given the proficiency he’s demonstrated. Pittsburgh star Bryan Reynolds has elite sprint speed but only stole five bases last year. I’m not going to bake in more steals to his projection, but I also think it would be more likely for him to gain about five steals than it would be for the steals to vanish completely. Perhaps there’s some latent upside to his running game.
Non-closing relievers can be heroes, too
When it comes to relief pitchers, we focus on the pitchers who are likely to collect saves. For better or worse, the save is one of the core 10 categories, and the save chase is beguiling and maddening in every fantasy season.
But non-closing relievers can also help fantasy managers — they help by collecting strikeouts, by massaging our ERA and our WHIP, and by scoring the occasional win or save. And today’s non-closing dominator might be tomorrow’s save superstar. Bullpens tend to be fluid, given the variance in performance, the pressure to win, and the inevitable injuries and trades that come with any season.
One great thing about non-closing relief stars is you can usually acquire them very cheaply. You might take one or two of them with a late draft pick, which is perfectly reasonable, but you can also find them in-season. Sometime around the end of April, open your free-agent page and sort the available relievers, focusing on K/BB ratio. You will find a handful of pitchers dominating in this area, and often they will be pitchers you’ve never heard of. Don’t be spooked by their anonymity. Valuable shutdown relievers come out of nowhere every season — think of Nick Anderson or Devin Williams in recent years — and I want you to find some of these guys. And if they’re tied to winning teams, all the better — go where the wins are.
Consider doubling up
Let’s be up front about Fantasy Baseball, it’s more of a commitment than Fantasy Football. The season is longer, and there are games almost every day for six months. You start more players. You have more decisions to make.
Co-managing a Fantasy Baseball team can be a cheat code if you land the right partner. You’ll need to find someone with a similar world view, I suppose, and you also need someone you’re comfortable debating with and compromising with. But when the right partnership emerges, man, I feel sorry for your opponents.
In my long-running keeper league, I’ve been in a decade-long co-managing hitch with my good friend, also named Scott. I do more of the player evaluation and pickup strategy, though the draft is a shared day. He’s brilliant with the trading and although I consult on strategy, he’s the one sending out emails and phone calls. We’ve won a competitive league three times in our time together — we narrowly missed last year — and I’m sure that’s better than I would have done as a solo manager.
[Try Yahoo Fantasy Plus for free to get premium baseball draft tools and more]
A word about positional depth
Not every fantasy position is stocked evenly entering the 2022 season. Some areas are overflowing with talent, while others dry up quickly. Here’s a rough guide as you consider your pregame strategy.
• Very Deep Positions: Shortstop, second base, outfield. You can find a good player at these spots at almost any point in the draft. It doesn’t mean you can’t draft these positions early — in the top rounds, category acquisition is as important as position filling — but you don’t have to race to completely fill in these areas.
• Medium Depth Position: First base, starting pitching. First base is a little top heavy, and it’s not a position I’d like to keep empty for too long. As for the starters, again, I like to address that position about one time for every three picks, as a ratio. That doesn’t mean I can’t take them consecutively, I just favor a balanced approach while stocking my roster.
• Shallow Positions: Third base, catcher. This is one of the weakest third-base pools I can remember. As for catcher, it’s still a position you can be thrifty on, especially if your league requires just one starter. I’m probably going to pass on Salvador Perez, given how significantly his ADP rose this spring. If you want a value catcher who can still plausibly be Top 5 at the position, consider Mitch Garver.
• The Never-ending Carnival Ride: Relief pitching. It’s the stuff that keeps you up at night. But that’s also part of the fun. Don’t worry, we’ll help you navigate it all year with our content.
Final Thoughts
Listen to everyone you respect, but make your own final decisions. Trust yourself. Savor the experience — for all the stuff that can sometimes clutter our lives, what’s really important are friendships and experiences. And get a few players you like. They’re going to be your new appointment viewing for the next few months.
